2004 RACING LINE

(Updated 6 January 2004)

After consultation with Jimmy Morris for divine providence and inspiration the odds maker again offers an analysis of who's hot all in the spirit of fun.  If you’re a betting person, stick with the Racing Line! For the fifth straight year, the Racing Line has predicted at least 4 of the top 5 and at least 7 of the top 10.  

For 2004 I am changing the approach to groupings of boats with similar odds.  These boats in each group – Defender/Prime Contenders/Podium Finishers/Challengers – are likely to be natural rivals throughout the season.  Finally I have singled out four other boats to watch for during the year. 

Rookie of the Year will be a tough ticket to win in 2004 with three new teams competing for the honors.  Based on their background, the amazing thing is that all three newcomers appear in the top ten projections for 2004.

Update -- Rumor has it that Outlier may be racing at Midwinters after all.

THE TOP TEN:

The Defender:

PIRANHA (Odds 1:1/2003 Finish – 1^st) – Again earns the pole position – and bullseye on the side.  2d National Season Championship, Nationals, PCC’s and record sixth Fleet Championship.  Remarkably, they had no finish worse than 2d place in any Class or Fleet regatta for the second year in a row.  Piranha sailed an extended season including winning its class in the surprisingly competitive Ventura Cup in October, but unlike Power Play and Ripple, the team has had no practice time and little off-season preparation in the past two months.  However, Piranha will not be slower with two new headsails to start the year.  By the way, with no major gaff’s in the class last year, Piranha is still anxious to find a worthy recipient of the Wooden Spoon.    

The Prime Contenders:

Clearly these two have the ability to win it all and have separated themselves from the pack with their consistent top finishes going back several years. 

WHIPLASH (Odds 2:1/2003 Finish – 3^rd) – Took Piranha to the last race at both PCC’s and Nationals and won the tiebreaker with Piranha for the Jimmy Morris/Cal Race Week victory.  Word has it that tactician Wally Gordon really is committed to the whole season this year which will provide a real stabilizing influence for the team.  Like Piranha, will be sporting new sails.

RIPPLE (Odds 2:1/2003 Finish – 4^th) – I was surprised that my prediction from last year did not come true and repeat it for this year:  Mark my words – these guys WILL win their first Class Regatta this year – and maybe more.  I think of Ripple being much like Piranha was at the start of 2002.  Last year was the first for the team to sail together and get to know how to work with each other.  They have been seen practicing during December getting ready for the season.  2004 could be the breakout year. 

Podium Finishers:

This group of boats will likely beat the top three from time to time, but until they put it together consistently (which may indeed happen in 2004), the odds still have to favor Piranha, Whiplash and Ripple for the overall Season National Championship.  Nonetheless, expect to see these three show up in the trophies regularly this year.

POWER PLAY (Odds 6:1/2003 Finish – 5^th)  Power Play has been a top 10 boat for years.  In fact, they would have been 4^th, 4^th and 5^th in class over last three seasons based on boats expected on the circuit in 2004, so it’s no surprise to find them this close to the top on the odds sheet – they’ve earned it.  More than any other, this boat is the big news from the off-season.  Sparkle and Tom have always had a very laid back approach to racing, but although I expect the party to continue, they finally got serious about preparing the boat and trying to win.  They have always been good sailors, but now a hot new helmsman, open transom conversion, massive amounts of off-season practicing and the necessary dedication to removing weight (class legally) mark a program that is getting serious this year for the first time in years.

NOTORIOUS (Odds 8:1/2003 Finish – 7^th) Three’s the charm for Notorious as they return for their third season in class racing.  Unfortunately for Tom, looking back over the results it is plain to see that they just couldn’t catch a break in the last race of the regatta all year long.  Heck, at Yachting Cup they took 7^th overall but were only one single point from 4^th after taking a seventh in the last race.  In other words, they had one of those years we have all had where you sailed well, but somehow the final results didn’t seem to show it.  Look for the luck to change in 2004 and for Team Notorious to move into the top 5 with consistency.

JOANN (Odds 12:1/2003 Finish – N/A)  Lots of great sailors have come into the class expecting to win right away, but it seldom happens.  Nonetheless, we take Steve and the team on JoAnn (ex-Super Gnat) seriously and expect their experience on the Santana 30/30 to translate well to the bigger boat.  Lots of racing and practice since buying the boat from Cliff after Nationals including a third place finish in a big PHRF fleet last month right behind winner Whiplash proves out our rating this team as a hot newcomer to the class to be reckoned with and most likely to win Rookie of the Year.

Challengers:

These boats will also challenge the leaders during the coming season and just might steal a regatta or two. 

PERFECT CIRCLE (Odds 25:1/2003 Finish – 15^th) Class President Fred Young’s program for Perfect Circle should serve as a model for anyone coming into the class.  Setting a series of goals, the team has gone from, well, the proverbial DFL to leading at the first weather mark in races at both North Sails Race Week/PCC’s as well as at Nationals!  The worst ½ ounce chute seen in class racing in years has been replaced with an order for a new crispy one and more.  New sails and the continued influence of Jim Durden will take this team up toward the front with greater consistency in 2004 following up on the dramatic improvement during the course of last season.  Perfect example of how you can only get better by coming out to play!

TWISTER (Odds 25:1/2003 Finish – N/A)  The team from NC10.2 Moody Blue have won enough PHRF silver and made the big jump to S-35 one-design racing after buying the boat from Ty.  This team is based in Marina del Rey which gives them the chance to get a lot of practice racing one-design with the local fleet in January before starting the circuit.  The learning curve is steep, but these guys are up to the challenge with many years of racing experience under their belt.

STRATEGEM (Odds 25:1/2003 Finish – 10^th)  As always, Mark can be counted on to put together a solid team that will do well in class.  If sheer fun and partying is the measure of success (or if you want to join in the festivities) hang around these guys and Power Play!

XYLOCAINE (Odds 25:1/2003 Finish – 12^th)  New sails and a new partner in the program are a mix for improvement.  Sal’s new partner is another former J-24 sailor who will add stability to the crew which was a problem for the team last year including the last second cancellation at Nationals. 

OTHER BOATS TO WATCH:

One Hit Wonders:

Two boats that would have made the list are left out simply because they don’t race the full circuit!  Nonetheless, you would be wise to keep your eye on them when they do show up on the circuit

KATHMANDU (2003 Finish – 13^th)  Only showed up once in 2003 and took 5^th at NSRW.  Also took 5^th at Nationals.  Plans to do Ahmanson, Yachting Cup and Nationals at a minimum, but only a maybe for NSRW and no WD or Midwinters.  Cant win if you don’t play.  Would rank higher if they took up the challenge to improve in OD instead of beating up on PHRF cream puffs.  Frankly don’t understand why this team doesn’t come play when they have shown the talent to win trophies.

SHILLELAGH (2003 Finish – 9^th)  Again, the issue for the SD Fleet is getting out of the harbor.  Rumor has it that this boat may be active on the circuit, but I can’t get solid confirmation. 

Surprises:

Meanwhile, lurking in the shadows are two boats that have retired from actively racing the whole circuit but could show up at any time and be immediately competitive to win a regatta.

OUTLIER (2003 Finish – 2^nd)  Three time National Championship Regatta winner (‘90, ‘91, ’92), Dick has the boat for sale – but not sold.  The team has the ability to show up anytime anywhere and be a favorite to win – if Dick isn’t racing his Porsche which is the new focus of his time. 

WHITE FANG (2003 Finish – 14^th) Cleaned house in PHRF last year, winning SoCal PHRF Championship among other wins.  Don is winding down his sailing career thought there is rumor he is looking to purchase the old SC50 Deception to shift to distance racing events instead of the buoys.  Took 5^th in their only appearance on the circuit last year at Cal Race Week.

Rookie Of The Year:

While JoAnn has the inside track to win rookie honors and Twister is ranked too, there is a third boat (and maybe a fourth coming) in the mix – Mako.  Mako is the ex-Water Moccasin.  This is a family affair with both Dad and Son racing together.  Open transom conversion allows for really cool track mounted seat to allow Dad (who’s a paraplegic) to take the helm.  Odds would improve with commitment to race the entire circuit instead of waiting until Yachting Cup which may be their plan.  Simply put, I’ve been racing in this class for 14 years and no one yet has improved by racing against PHRF boats at home.  Although I may sound like a broken record on this, it remains absolutely true.